tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 342 at 15:55, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 342 Southwest Flight history → MAF 15:55 LAS 16:10 29% 10% 0.7% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MAF 06:05 → DEN 06:55WN 2522 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 5h 20m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MAF 05:15 → DAL 06:35WN 1959 2h 10m Dallas DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695 6h 20m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 02m 95% 88%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2281 3h 27m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 13m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MAF 07:15 → HOU 08:45WN 4896 2h 00m Houston HOU 10:45 → LAS 11:55WN 652 6h 40m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LAS 09:16AA 1584 6h 16m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:58 → DEN 08:55UA 5822 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 26m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 00m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON