Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4939 at 09:20, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4939 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 09:20	PHX 09:23	16%	9%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MAF 06:05 → DEN 06:55WN 2522	1h 05m Denver	DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:05WN 3336	5h 00m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	MAF 05:15 → DAL 06:35WN 1959	2h 15m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	6h 05m	99%	86%
United Details →	MAF 05:00 → IAH 06:37UA 6351 · flown by Mesa	3h 03m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	7h 34m	97%	84%
United Details →	MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481	4h 55m	94%	83%
American Details →	MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	6h 29m	100%	81%
United Details →	MAF 07:58 → DEN 08:55UA 5822 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	6h 27m	97%	80%
United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PHX 15:10UA 1238	7h 33m	98%	79%
American Details →	MAF 06:00 → DFW 07:30AA 4907 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	7h 19m	95%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MAF 17:13 → IAH 18:55UA 4001 · flown by Mesa	58m Houston	IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078	5h 29m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON