Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1204 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 1204 MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3500 MCI 18:07 → ATL 21:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1204 Delta Flight history →	MCI 05:39	ATL 08:43	3%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1212 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	ATL 10:03	4%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3110 Delta Flight history →	MCI 08:00	ATL 11:01	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:43	ATL 13:47	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	MCI 12:21	ATL 15:28	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	MCI 13:18	ATL 16:26	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	MCI 15:38	ATL 18:48	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 527 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 12:35	ATL 15:40	9%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:40	ATL 20:54	11%	4%	0.7%	87%
F9 3500 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 18:07	ATL 21:45	35%	15%	0.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON