Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2528 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2528 MCI 06:50 → AUS 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4749 MCI 17:20 → AUS 19:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2528 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:50	AUS 08:40	4%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 3650 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:59	AUS 12:02	12%	5%	0.5%	93%
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 12:20	AUS 14:10	15%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 3577 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 19:57	AUS 22:00	19%	9%	0.6%	67%
WN 4749 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:20	AUS 19:15	24%	8%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON