Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2531 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2531 MCI 07:40 → BNA 09:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4269 MCI 18:10 → BNA 19:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2531 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 07:40	BNA 09:15	3%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 4649 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 09:30	BNA 11:00	5%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 2533 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 13:25	BNA 15:00	14%	3%	0.5%	79%
WN 5069 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:00	BNA 16:35	16%	4%	0.5%	83%
WN 4269 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:10	BNA 19:45	22%	6%	0.5%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON