Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 675 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 675 MCI 09:40 → BOS 13:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4997 MCI 14:10 → BOS 18:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 675 Delta Flight history →	MCI 09:40	BOS 13:44	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 314 Delta Flight history →	MCI 19:45	BOS 23:55	19%	12%	0.7%	64%
WN 4997 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 14:10	BOS 18:10	25%	9%	0.5%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON