Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4188 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4188 MCI 06:10 → DAL 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4455 MCI 21:25 → DAL 22:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4188 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:10	DAL 07:45	3%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 1540 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 07:50	DAL 09:25	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 4759 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 13:00	DAL 14:35	14%	3%	0.6%	75%
WN 1323 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 16:55	DAL 18:30	23%	7%	0.6%	53%
WN 2540 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:25	DAL 20:55	27%	8%	0.6%	44%
WN 4455 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 21:25	DAL 22:55	28%	8%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON