Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4766 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4766 MCI 06:52 → DCA 10:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 458 MCI 18:30 → DCA 21:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4766 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MCI 06:52	DCA 10:37	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 2542 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 07:45	DCA 11:05	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 5268 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MCI 09:17	DCA 12:59	14%	6%	1.2%	79%
WN 1458 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 12:30	DCA 15:50	21%	5%	0.6%	40%
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MCI 17:18	DCA 20:59	22%	10%	1.5%	24%
WN 458 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:30	DCA 21:55	32%	13%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON