Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2545 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2545 MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1146 MCI 17:15 → DEN 18:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2545 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:55	DEN 06:45	3%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 2546 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:55	DEN 07:45	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 355 United Flight history →	MCI 06:00	DEN 06:56	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 3169 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 08:25	DEN 09:10	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 280 United Flight history →	MCI 09:10	DEN 10:17	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 2548 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:10	DEN 11:00	9%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 5358 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 11:33	DEN 12:38	9%	5%	0.5%	94%
UA 708 United Flight history →	MCI 13:32	DEN 14:27	10%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 5503 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 19:10	DEN 20:23	13%	6%	0.5%	75%
UA 2123 United Flight history →	MCI 17:24	DEN 18:25	19%	7%	0.5%	64%
F9 3375 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 13:45	DEN 14:50	20%	8%	0.7%	80%
WN 1563 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:05	DEN 15:55	25%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 3570 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:10	DEN 20:05	27%	7%	0.6%	65%
WN 2549 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 16:15	DEN 17:05	27%	6%	0.6%	40%
WN 1146 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:15	DEN 18:10	30%	7%	0.6%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON