Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1098 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1098 MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2047 MCI 19:53 → DFW 21:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1098 American Flight history →	MCI 05:31	DFW 07:23	6%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 955 American Flight history →	MCI 06:39	DFW 08:32	8%	4%	0.9%	80%
AA 3661 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 12:16	DFW 14:06	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 602 American Flight history →	MCI 11:26	DFW 13:10	14%	7%	0.8%	83%
AA 2050 American Flight history →	MCI 09:45	DFW 11:30	14%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 6238 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 14:30	DFW 16:20	14%	11%	0.9%	70%
AA 922 American Flight history →	MCI 18:19	DFW 20:16	23%	11%	1.0%	62%
AA 2047 American Flight history →	MCI 19:53	DFW 21:41	24%	11%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON