tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2552 at 10:40, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2552 Southwest Flight history → MCI 10:40 ECP 12:45 13% 3% 1.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 09m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:15 → MDW 06:40WN 4276 2h 00m Chicago MDW 08:40 → ECP 10:50WN 2773 5h 35m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:31DL 1359 5h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 5h 54m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 7h 12m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:10 → DAL 07:45WN 4188 1h 40m Dallas DAL 09:25 → ECP 11:20WN 3032 5h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494 5h 08m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 5h 57m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 16:15 → DEN 17:05WN 2549 50m Denver DEN 17:55 → ECP 22:05WN 4379 5h 50m 66% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON