tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1969 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1969 United Flight history → MCI 06:05 EWR 09:58 6% 3% 0.7% 96%
UA 3522 United flown by Republic Flight history → MCI 15:27 EWR 19:30 22% 6% 1.2% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 5h 33m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 42m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 5485 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 17m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 2h 26m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 6h 46m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 52m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 31m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 1h 23m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 11m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 6h 52m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 3h 06m Denver DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423 9h 00m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → MCI 18:07 → ATL 21:45F9 3500 55m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 01:03 +1F9 4602 5h 56m 61% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON