tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 688 United Flight history → MCI 12:30 IAD 16:03 10% 4% 0.6% 92%
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history → MCI 17:45 IAD 21:26 13% 4% 0.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 26m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 4h 58m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 5485 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Chicago ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869 7h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 01m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 51m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:34 → ORD 11:29UA 5504 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m Chicago ORD 13:30 → IAD 16:30UA 2794 5h 56m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:10 → DEN 10:17UA 280 2h 09m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 7h 48m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 17:24 → DEN 18:25UA 2123 48m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 6h 21m 71% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON