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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1432 at 13:30, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1432 Southwest Flight history → MCI 13:30 IND 16:00 16% 4% 0.5% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:05 → BWI 08:30WN 2536 2h 15m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960 6h 25m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 57m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40WN 2569 2h 20m Chicago MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877 4h 50m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 2h 30m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic 5h 46m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545 1h 55m Denver DEN 08:40 → IND 13:00WN 1552 6h 05m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 56m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456 4h 05m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:05 → EWR 09:58UA 1969 1h 56m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 07:40 → BNA 09:15WN 2531 50m Nashville BNA 10:05 → IND 12:20WN 537 3h 40m 94% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303 52m Chicago ORD 21:25 → IND 23:44UA 3660 · flown by Republic 4h 03m 71% 59%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:21 → PHL 21:10AA 2875 50m Philadelphia PHL 22:00 → IND 23:58AA 1247 5h 37m 71% 56%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 18:05 → BWI 21:35WN 1399 50m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → IND 00:20 +1WN 4216 5h 15m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON