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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5262 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MCI 10:30 JFK 14:44 14% 9% 3.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 41m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:30 → ORD 07:31AA 3845 · flown by Envoy 3h 29m Chicago ORD 11:00 → JFK 14:39AA 4350 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 51m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 4h 33m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 8h 42m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 8h 29m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 1h 45m Charlotte CLT 11:45 → JFK 13:47AA 2812 6h 16m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 2h 48m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 6h 57m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378 8h 05m 100% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON