Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 276 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 276 MCI 06:20 → LAS 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 4505 MCI 16:32 → LAS 17:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 276 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:20	LAS 07:20	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 1149 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 07:50	LAS 08:50	4%	1%	0.5%	96%
WN 4532 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 09:45	LAS 10:45	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 2286 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:30	LAS 16:35	19%	9%	0.6%	76%
WN 2288 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 20:25	LAS 21:25	24%	9%	0.6%	46%
WN 4240 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:25	LAS 18:25	26%	11%	0.6%	40%
F9 4505 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 16:32	LAS 17:40	28%	15%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON