Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4827 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4827 MCI 05:30 → LAX 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2418 MCI 15:40 → LAX 17:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4827 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:30	LAX 06:55	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1354 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:32	LAX 09:00	6%	5%	0.6%	94%
UA 5489 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 16:26	LAX 18:10	9%	5%	0.5%	97%
DL 1517 Delta Flight history →	MCI 15:55	LAX 17:20	11%	5%	0.6%	91%
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:40	LAX 17:10	22%	6%	0.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON