Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4862 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4862 MCI 05:45 → LGA 09:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2564 MCI 17:40 → LGA 21:25 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4862 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:45	LGA 09:30	5%	1%	0.8%	96%
DL 370 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:00	LGA 09:50	5%	2%	1.0%	89%
DL 572 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:40	LGA 14:32	12%	4%	1.0%	84%
WN 2563 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 11:15	LGA 15:00	18%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:55	LGA 22:46	25%	12%	1.3%	75%
WN 2564 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:40	LGA 21:25	43%	15%	0.8%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON