Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2209 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2209 MCI 05:00 → MCO 08:45 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2567 MCI 20:20 → MCO 00:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2209 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:00	MCO 08:45	2%	1%	13.1%	92%
WN 3238 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 11:45	MCO 15:35	14%	6%	14.9%	84%
WN 2566 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 14:55	MCO 18:50	21%	9%	17.2%	69%
WN 2567 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 20:20	MCO 00:15	22%	8%	17.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON