Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2569 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 2569 MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 345 MCI 19:55 → MDW 21:20 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2569 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:15	MDW 07:40	3%	1%	0.7%	97%
WN 4276 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:15	MDW 06:40	4%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 1774 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 08:15	MDW 09:40	5%	1%	0.6%	88%
WN 2571 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:50	MDW 12:15	7%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 2572 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 14:10	MDW 15:35	14%	4%	0.6%	48%
WN 9 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 16:05	MDW 17:30	18%	6%	0.6%	36%
WN 2029 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:35	MDW 19:00	23%	7%	0.6%	40%
WN 345 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:55	MDW 21:20	23%	7%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON