Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 892 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 892 MCI 05:00 → MIA 09:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3939 MCI 17:53 → MIA 22:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 892 American Flight history →	MCI 05:00	MIA 09:18	10%	3%	1.5%	91%
WN 2575 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:00	MIA 14:10	22%	5%	1.7%	96%worse than usual
AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 17:53	MIA 22:05	27%	7%	1.8%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON