tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4974 at 15:40, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4974 Southwest Flight history → MCI 15:40 MKE 17:10 16% 7% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:05 → BWI 08:30WN 2536 2h 15m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → MKE 11:50WN 1011 6h 45m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 6h 14m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561 4h 54m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246 6h 50m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40WN 2569 2h 40m Chicago MDW 10:20 → MKE 11:05WN 1702 4h 50m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:50 → PHX 06:35WN 2578 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 07:40 → MKE 13:00WN 4104 7h 10m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 5h 56m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 3h 01m Denver DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836 7h 25m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 18:19 → DFW 20:16AA 922 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → MKE 23:34AA 1234 5h 15m 70% 52%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 17:15 → DEN 18:10WN 1146 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → MKE 22:30WN 1634 5h 15m 65% 48%
UnitedDetails → MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MKE 22:29UA 5362 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON