Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1635 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1635 MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1630 MCI 17:42 → MSP 19:15 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1635 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:23	MSP 07:54	4%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 1608 Delta Flight history →	MCI 12:39	MSP 14:12	9%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 1613 Delta Flight history →	MCI 16:04	MSP 17:40	12%	6%	0.6%	88%
DL 1630 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:42	MSP 19:15	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 4867 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 09:13	MSP 10:50	14%	6%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON