tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2577 at 15:35, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2577 Southwest Flight history → MCI 15:35 MSY 17:35 18% 8% 0.9% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545 1h 15m Denver DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642 5h 50m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 58m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:15 → MDW 06:40WN 4276 2h 10m Chicago MDW 08:50 → MSY 11:05WN 2834 5h 50m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:50 → AUS 08:40WN 2528 2h 10m Austin AUS 10:50 → MSY 12:15WN 366 5h 25m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 54m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 7h 39m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:34 → ORD 11:29UA 5504 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 7h 15m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:20 → LAS 07:20WN 276 55m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → MSY 13:50WN 2280 7h 30m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:05 → BWI 08:30WN 2536 55m Baltimore BWI 09:25 → MSY 11:05WN 4692 6h 00m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:53 → MIA 22:05AA 3939 · flown by Envoy 1h 00m Miami MIA 23:05 → MSY 00:09 +1AA 2552 6h 16m 73% 50%
AmericanDetails → MCI 19:53 → DFW 21:41AA 2047 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → MSY 23:58AA 1472 4h 05m 73% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON