Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5485 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 5485 MCI 06:00 → ORD 07:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 6399 MCI 19:46 → ORD 21:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5485 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 06:00	ORD 07:58	7%	5%	0.9%	89%
AA 3845 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 05:30	ORD 07:31	7%	4%	1.0%	97%
UA 1491 United Flight history →	MCI 07:53	ORD 09:45	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 5504 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:34	ORD 11:29	9%	6%	0.9%	90%
AA 6250 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:14	ORD 11:05	11%	7%	0.9%	76%
UA 2437 United Flight history →	MCI 11:25	ORD 13:15	11%	5%	0.9%	82%
UA 5309 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 13:03	ORD 14:55	15%	8%	0.9%	76%
AA 6249 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 13:30	ORD 15:21	16%	9%	0.9%	66%
UA 2792 United Flight history →	MCI 15:16	ORD 17:05	17%	7%	0.9%	71%
AA 4745 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MCI 17:19	ORD 19:27	18%	7%	0.9%	79%
UA 303 United Flight history →	MCI 18:41	ORD 20:33	20%	8%	0.9%	75%
UA 2770 United Flight history →	MCI 17:37	ORD 19:30	20%	8%	0.8%	71%
AA 6399 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 19:46	ORD 21:38	21%	12%	1.1%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON