tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1519 Alaska Flight history → MCI 17:50 PDX 19:46 17% 4% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 8h 15m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545 1h 00m Denver DEN 07:45 → PDX 09:25WN 300 5h 30m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 05m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 09m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 5h 47m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 19m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:20 → LAS 07:20WN 276 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132 7h 20m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:50 → PHX 06:35WN 2578 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → PDX 10:25WN 4092 6h 35m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:55 → DEN 07:45WN 2546 1h 50m Denver DEN 09:35 → PDX 11:10WN 1667 6h 15m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 19:59 → SFO 21:50UA 1429 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384 6h 51m 73% 59%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 19:10 → DEN 20:05WN 3570 1h 00m Denver DEN 21:05 → PDX 22:50WN 1671 5h 40m 73% 51%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 16:15 → DEN 17:05WN 2549 1h 10m Denver DEN 18:15 → PDX 20:00WN 1669 5h 45m 75% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON