Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 946 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 946 MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2875 MCI 17:21 → PHL 21:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 946 American Flight history →	MCI 06:00	PHL 09:45	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 869 American Flight history →	MCI 13:26	PHL 17:15	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 2875 American Flight history →	MCI 17:21	PHL 21:10	24%	9%	0.7%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCI 08:05 → STL 09:10WN 2585	50m St Louis	STL 10:00 → PHL 13:10WN 3222	4h 05m	91%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON