Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2578 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2578 MCI 05:50 → PHX 06:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2580 MCI 18:30 → PHX 19:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2578 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:50	PHX 06:35	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
AA 2645 American Flight history →	MCI 06:01	PHX 06:50	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 4651 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:40	PHX 11:25	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 2058 American Flight history →	MCI 14:18	PHX 15:15	16%	7%	0.6%	86%
WN 2581 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 21:15	PHX 22:00	30%	10%	0.6%	52%
WN 2580 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:30	PHX 19:15	30%	10%	0.6%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON