tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4593 at 09:10, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4593 Southwest Flight history → MCI 09:10 PNS 11:15 10% 3% 0.5% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:10 → DAL 07:45WN 4188 1h 50m Dallas DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796 5h 15m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:15 → MDW 06:40WN 4276 1h 05m Chicago MDW 07:45 → PNS 10:00WN 4103 4h 45m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 12m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 3h 24m Denver DEN 10:20 → PNS 14:15UA 2185 8h 15m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 00m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 11:22 → PNS 12:17AA 5349 · flown by PSA 5h 46m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 7h 13m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 5485 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Chicago ORD 10:38 → PNS 13:07UA 2672 7h 07m 97% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON