Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4648 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 18:55	RDU 22:26	25%	9%	3.4%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → RDU 11:43DL 2052	5h 04m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	MCI 05:15 → MDW 06:40WN 4276	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 07:40 → RDU 10:35WN 852	4h 20m	96%	89%
Southwest Details →	MCI 05:05 → BWI 08:30WN 2536	3h 05m Baltimore	BWI 11:35 → RDU 12:45WN 4442	6h 40m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521	6h 28m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	4h 42m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	52m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	4h 32m	95%	87%
Southwest Details →	MCI 07:40 → BNA 09:15WN 2531	55m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40WN 1795	4h 00m	96%	85%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 5485 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616	7h 01m	97%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 17:21 → PHL 21:10AA 2875	50m Philadelphia	PHL 22:00 → RDU 23:34AA 3125	5h 13m	71%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON