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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4457 at 18:30, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4457 Southwest Flight history → MCI 18:30 SAN 19:50 38% 9% 0.6% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 5h 45m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 01m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 29m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:30 → SAN 14:09DL 2155 9h 44m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:50 → PHX 06:35WN 2578 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 07:55 → SAN 09:10WN 2771 5h 20m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 03m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:50 → AUS 08:40WN 2528 1h 25m Austin AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435 6h 05m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 3h 15m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 9h 32m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 19:59 → SFO 21:50UA 1429 52m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 6h 32m 70% 51%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 15:05 → DEN 15:55WN 1563 1h 00m Denver DEN 16:55 → SAN 18:20WN 4160 5h 15m 75% 46%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 15:35 → MSY 17:35WN 2577 55m New Orleans MSY 18:30 → SAN 20:15WN 3018 6h 40m 74% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON