tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2583 at 14:55, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2583 Southwest Flight history → MCI 14:55 SAT 16:55 14% 5% 0.5% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:50 → PHX 06:35WN 2578 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 07:55 → SAT 12:05WN 4081 6h 15m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:10 → DAL 07:45WN 4188 2h 05m Dallas DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617 4h 45m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40WN 2569 2h 55m Chicago MDW 10:35 → SAT 13:15WN 2570 7h 00m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:55 → DEN 07:45WN 2546 1h 35m Denver DEN 09:20 → SAT 12:25WN 3149 5h 30m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545 55m Denver DEN 07:40 → SAT 10:50WN 2664 4h 55m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 39m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 6h 43m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 5h 26m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:05 → BWI 08:30WN 2536 55m Baltimore BWI 09:25 → SAT 11:50WN 1090 6h 45m 96% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 17:25 → LAS 18:25WN 4240 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 19:25 → SAT 00:10 +1WN 4526 6h 45m 74% 47%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 19:25 → DAL 20:55WN 2540 50m Dallas DAL 21:45 → SAT 22:55WN 2231 3h 30m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON