Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2105 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2105 MCI 07:00 → SEA 08:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 501 MCI 19:58 → SEA 21:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2105 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	SEA 08:57	6%	3%	0.8%	87%
AS 563 Alaska Flight history →	MCI 06:02	SEA 08:05	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
AS 418 Alaska Flight history →	MCI 14:17	SEA 16:17	14%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 501 Alaska Flight history →	MCI 19:58	SEA 21:58	25%	6%	0.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713	5h 50m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	MCI 08:25 → DEN 09:10WN 3169	55m Denver	DEN 10:05 → SEA 12:05WN 3051	5h 40m	89%	66%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:55 → SLC 16:32DL 2882	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	5h 38m	85%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON