tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1429 United Flight history → MCI 19:59 SFO 21:50 28% 13% 0.6% 24%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 46m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 11:33 → DEN 12:38UA 5358 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 57m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 9h 42m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:10 → DEN 10:17UA 280 2h 08m Denver DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 6h 59m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 50m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 2h 52m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 52m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:34 → ORD 11:29UA 5504 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m Chicago ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 10h 44m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCI 13:32 → DEN 14:27UA 708 3h 27m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 8h 08m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 21:15 → PHX 22:00WN 2581 50m Phoenix PHX 22:50 → SFO 00:55 +1WN 1098 5h 40m 58% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON