tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:55, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4828 Southwest Flight history → MCI 14:25 SMF 16:00 24% 7% 0.5% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545 1h 10m Denver DEN 07:55 → SMF 09:30WN 1738 5h 35m 97% 91%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:20 → LAS 07:20WN 276 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860 5h 45m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 5h 35m 96% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:50 → PHX 06:35WN 2578 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 07:45 → SMF 09:45WN 2885 5h 55m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 7h 11m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:55 → DEN 07:45WN 2546 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:00 → SMF 10:25WN 1739 5h 30m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 46m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:30 → LAX 06:55WN 4827 2h 35m Los Angeles LAX 09:30 → SMF 10:55WN 4454 7h 25m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 19:53 → DFW 21:41AA 2047 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 6h 06m 73% 51%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 17:25 → LAS 18:25WN 4240 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:20 → SMF 21:00WN 978 5h 35m 73% 44%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 18:30 → SAN 19:50WN 4457 1h 10m San Diego SAN 21:00 → SMF 22:45WN 3551 6h 15m 73% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON