tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4796 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4796 Southwest Flight history → MCI 05:10 TPA 08:45 4% 1% 16.6% 98%
WN 457 Southwest Flight history → MCI 21:25 TPA 01:05 30% 9% 10.2% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40WN 2569 1h 35m Chicago MDW 09:15 → TPA 12:50WN 2907 5h 35m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → TPA 14:13DL 2696 6h 50m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 50m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 5485 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 12m 99% 71%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 08:05 → STL 09:10WN 2585 55m St Louis STL 10:05 → TPA 13:25WN 3986 4h 20m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 44m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 8h 14m 97% 70%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 07:40 → BNA 09:15WN 2531 2h 35m Nashville BNA 11:50 → TPA 14:40WN 684 6h 00m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 13m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 15:05 → DEN 15:55WN 1563 55m Denver DEN 16:50 → TPA 22:35WN 4739 6h 30m 65% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON