tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4863 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4863 Southwest Flight history → MCO 06:30 ALB 09:15 2% 1% 0.6% 84%
B6 2919 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 20:09 ALB 23:07 34% 17% 17.6% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → ALB 11:22DL 1137 5h 52m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → ALB 10:52AA 1352 5h 52m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55WN 1956 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 10:55 → ALB 12:15WN 155 4h 35m 93% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:05 → ALB 11:47DL 5522 · flown by Endeavor 5h 41m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 3h 00m Philadelphia PHL 13:05 → ALB 14:29AA 6028 · flown by Piedmont 7h 03m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35WN 550 2h 40m Nashville BNA 11:15 → ALB 14:25WN 159 6h 50m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150 2h 50m Chicago ORD 12:08 → ALB 15:17UA 1554 8h 08m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654 3h 45m Chicago MDW 13:00 → ALB 15:50WN 4406 8h 25m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCO 16:05 → MDW 18:00WN 2658 50m Chicago MDW 18:50 → ALB 21:50WN 4248 5h 45m 69% 42%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:45 → DFW 17:47AA 2143 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:38 → ALB 23:15AA 391 7h 30m 71% 33%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947 1h 22m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → ALB 00:07 +1B6 87 5h 42m 65% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON