Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1548 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4025 MCO 17:24 → ATL 19:25 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:03	3%	2%	0.9%	95%
DL 1494 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:15	ATL 07:58	4%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:46	7%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	8%	3%	11.0%	90%
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	9%	3%	10.5%	88%
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:41	10%	3%	10.4%	89%
WN 2591 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:00	ATL 09:35	11%	2%	10.3%	88%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:42	13%	4%	15.2%	84%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	14%	4%	15.2%	81%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	17%	4%	17.5%	82%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ATL 22:54	18%	10%	17.5%	72%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	20%	7%	18.3%	75%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:40	ATL 17:30	21%	8%	18.8%	67%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:47	22%	9%	17.5%	60%
F9 1563 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:45	ATL 09:41	22%	7%	1.2%	84%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	23%	10%	17.6%	55%
DL 1642 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:45	ATL 18:35	23%	8%	17.5%	49%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	23%	10%	17.6%	67%
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:00	ATL 11:46	27%	10%	10.5%	67%
WN 4922 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:30	ATL 17:15	27%	9%	18.5%	50%
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:10	ATL 20:55	34%	12%	17.5%	45%
F9 3975 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:18	ATL 17:09	40%	17%	19.1%	60%
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	42%	19%	17.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON