Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2594 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2594 MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 2600 MCO 22:20 → AUS 23:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2594 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:40	AUS 08:15	4%	1%	0.9%	98%
WN 1435 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:50	AUS 09:30	8%	1%	0.9%	96%
F9 4523 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:40	AUS 09:32	16%	4%	1.1%	86%
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:35	AUS 14:30	17%	4%	15.7%	82%
DL 2524 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:50	AUS 19:57	21%	10%	17.5%	56%
WN 4719 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:40	AUS 14:20	24%	5%	15.9%	72%
WN 399 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:50	AUS 15:35	25%	6%	17.8%	66%
WN 4402 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:40	AUS 20:30	30%	11%	17.6%	68%
WN 2598 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:35	AUS 18:25	31%	9%	17.4%	52%
WN 2600 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:20	AUS 23:55	33%	10%	17.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON