Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: F9 1684 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day F9 1684 MCO 08:48 → BDL 11:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 972 MCO 20:05 → BDL 23:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1684 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:48	BDL 11:32	16%	6%	8.2%	83%
B6 1578 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:41	BDL 16:30	24%	12%	17.5%	61%
B6 438 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:00	BDL 18:54	31%	17%	17.5%	66%
B6 338 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:59	BDL 00:53	32%	19%	17.4%	57%
WN 972 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:05	BDL 23:00	32%	11%	17.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON