Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 436 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 436 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:00	BHM 08:40	8%	2%	10.0%	83%
WN 4829 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:10	BHM 22:50	32%	11%	17.3%	49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100	3h 55m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 55m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	2h 00m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → BHM 11:30WN 1271	6h 15m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	3h 52m	96%	87%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → BHM 11:46AA 3469 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35WN 550	2h 10m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → BHM 11:40WN 434	5h 05m	100%	87%
American Details →	MCO 06:15 → CLT 08:04AA 461	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → BHM 12:09AA 4932 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	5h 19m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 18:52 → ATL 20:54DL 1742	50m Atlanta	ATL 21:44 → BHM 21:40DL 2257	3h 48m	73%	50%
American Details →	MCO 19:34 → CLT 21:39AA 2100	49m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → BHM 23:00AA 362	4h 26m	65%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON