Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 550 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 550 MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2607 MCO 19:40 → BNA 20:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 550 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:35	BNA 08:35	4%	1%	0.9%	94%
WN 2604 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:35	BNA 10:35	10%	2%	11.2%	78%
WN 4713 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 11:00	BNA 12:00	16%	4%	16.1%	84%
WN 2605 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:15	BNA 13:15	19%	4%	15.8%	59%
F9 1285 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:05	BNA 10:17	20%	6%	9.1%	82%
WN 2606 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:45	BNA 16:50	27%	8%	19.0%	52%
F9 3559 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:49	BNA 16:05	28%	11%	18.8%	76%
WN 4830 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	BNA 23:55	28%	9%	17.4%	49%
WN 4711 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:20	BNA 18:30	29%	10%	17.5%	47%
WN 2607 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:40	BNA 20:45	31%	10%	17.5%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON