Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 430 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day B6 430 MCO 05:01 → BQN 07:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 730 MCO 14:30 → BQN 17:24 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 430 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 05:01	BQN 07:47	7%	3%	1.2%	75%
F9 1954 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	BQN 02:10	22%	11%	18.0%	75%
B6 730 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:30	BQN 17:24	33%	11%	18.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON