Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1086 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet that day B6 1086 MCO 06:25 → BUF 09:06 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest WN 4832 MCO 19:55 → BUF 22:40 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1086 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:25	BUF 09:06	8%	3%	0.9%	70%
B6 1586 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:55	BUF 20:46	35%	19%	16.1%	64%
F9 3262 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:17	BUF 19:06	35%	18%	18.1%	70%
WN 4832 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:55	BUF 22:40	40%	18%	17.1%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON