tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198 7h 10m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:15 → PHX 08:45WN 2680 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 09:50 → BUR 11:15WN 1100 7h 00m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 8h 27m 97% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 3h 35m Denver DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579 10h 00m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:50 → DAL 09:25WN 738 2h 30m Dallas DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076 8h 15m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 40m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 85% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → DFW 08:29AA 2975 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617 8h 35m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:47 → DFW 19:58AA 1288 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 11m 63% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON