Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1956 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1956 MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4004 MCO 18:13 → BWI 20:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1956 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:40	BWI 09:55	7%	1%	0.9%	93%
WN 2611 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:40	BWI 10:55	8%	2%	11.2%	94%
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	10%	4%	1.6%	89%
WN 2612 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:30	BWI 11:45	12%	3%	11.2%	86%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:55	BWI 13:10	13%	3%	12.9%	85%
WN 455 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:55	BWI 00:20	21%	9%	17.6%	55%
WN 160 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	BWI 01:20	22%	8%	17.5%	81%
WN 962 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:00	BWI 17:25	22%	6%	19.0%	62%
WN 889 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:05	BWI 19:40	23%	9%	17.6%	54%
WN 1118 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:40	BWI 21:15	25%	9%	17.7%	32%
WN 1015 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:50	BWI 22:15	25%	9%	17.7%	62%
F9 2310 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:58	BWI 00:23	26%	12%	18.0%	67%
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:13	BWI 20:43	26%	13%	18.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON