Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: F9 1915 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day F9 1915 MCO 05:20 → CLE 07:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1055 MCO 17:52 → CLE 20:42 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:20	CLE 07:56	7%	3%	1.1%	87%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 11:35	CLE 14:06	10%	5%	15.1%	92%
WN 2278 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:00	CLE 11:25	14%	3%	10.3%	86%
UA 1970 United Flight history →	MCO 15:05	CLE 17:39	17%	9%	18.9%	59%
F9 2667 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:05	CLE 13:43	18%	8%	16.0%	82%
F9 1055 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:52	CLE 20:42	25%	16%	17.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON