Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1896 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1896 MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1556 MCO 20:10 → CLT 22:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1896 American Flight history →	MCO 05:00	CLT 06:45	4%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 461 American Flight history →	MCO 06:15	CLT 08:04	6%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 1525 American Flight history →	MCO 08:00	CLT 09:53	9%	3%	8.6%	92%
AA 609 American Flight history →	MCO 09:01	CLT 10:54	12%	3%	9.0%	89%
AA 2084 American Flight history →	MCO 10:03	CLT 11:54	13%	4%	11.2%	86%
AA 2074 American Flight history →	MCO 12:48	CLT 14:45	15%	5%	15.6%	89%
F9 1446 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:38	CLT 11:29	16%	6%	10.5%	92%
AA 2073 American Flight history →	MCO 11:40	CLT 13:31	18%	6%	13.4%	69%
AA 2127 American Flight history →	MCO 13:52	CLT 15:49	18%	6%	17.4%	74%
AA 2098 American Flight history →	MCO 15:32	CLT 17:30	22%	9%	18.3%	53%
AA 2082 American Flight history →	MCO 17:35	CLT 19:34	24%	9%	17.4%	49%
F9 2452 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:00	CLT 16:58	25%	12%	19.1%	74%
AA 2100 American Flight history →	MCO 19:34	CLT 21:39	28%	9%	17.5%	54%
F9 1556 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:10	CLT 22:04	29%	13%	17.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON