Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2616 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2616 MCO 06:10 → CMH 08:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2757 MCO 17:40 → CMH 20:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2616 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:10	CMH 08:20	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1187 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:20	CMH 11:35	11%	2%	10.3%	88%
WN 4945 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:30	CMH 19:55	29%	10%	17.4%	64%
F9 2757 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:40	CMH 20:14	32%	12%	17.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON