Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1249 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1249 MCO 08:30 → CVG 10:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1749 MCO 21:24 → CVG 23:46 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1249 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:30	CVG 10:40	9%	2%	10.4%	91%
DL 511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:25	CVG 13:37	15%	4%	15.2%	80%
F9 1565 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:40	CVG 12:58	17%	9%	13.1%	82%
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:18	CVG 21:42	24%	10%	17.7%	68%
F9 1749 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:24	CVG 23:46	26%	14%	17.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON